Change is coming to UPS in 2023. There’s one big reason why.

It’s 2023! Like a lot of people on January 1st, today I find myself reflecting on the year that has just passed and considering the year that lies ahead.

I’m a big fan of observing milestones. Crossing a finish line is a big deal for me – always an accomplishment worth celebrating. But as a distance runner I’ve also come to appreciate halfway points. It’s a great feeling to know that I’m finally no farther from the finish than I am from the start. Though they usually pass without a lot of notice, I believe that halfway points are still worth acknowledging.

2022 included several meaningful halfway points in my life:

• Though I don’t expect to make it to my 100th birthday, last March I made it halfway there.
• A couple months later, in mid-May, I arrived at the halfway point to my goal of running a marathon in all 50 U.S. states.
• And on Wednesday, October 26th, 2022, I crossed the halfway point through the four-year wage progression for UPS drivers.

In each of these cases, getting to the halfway point has renewed my energy and focus. I’m much more determined and motivated to finish what I’ve started. I keep telling myself, ‘I can do this. I’ve done this. Just one more like this.’

Still, I’ve had to work through the many mixed emotions that have come up in response to all the pandemic-induced changes to my life. It was a dramatic and difficult transition but I hung in there.

Now I feel stronger. More relaxed. More confident and contented. I’m starting the new year much more comfortable in my own skin and in my newfound, later-in-life career.

The past year was all about halfway points. What about the year ahead?

I foresee 2023 as a milestone year for me. And not for reasons you might expect.

• Not because I’ll make it to ‘top rate’ – that’s still another 22 months away.
• Not because I’ll be getting my own route – as a ‘22.4 driver’ I’m not eligible to bid on a route.
• And not because I’ll be promoted to ‘Regular Package Car Driver’ – there’s no set timetable for that promotion, and right now there are nine other 22.4 drivers in my local facility ahead of me on the list.

No, I expect 2023 to be significant because the five-year contract between UPS and the International Brotherhood of Teamsters expires at the end of July. That makes for a year of anticipation, uncertainty, and inevitable, eventual change.

I don’t know what my work situation will look like on August 1st. Maybe we’ll already have a new contract in place. Maybe we’ll continue working without a new contract as negotiations proceed in good faith. Or maybe we’ll walk off the job if negotiations break down.

A work stoppage is a very real possibility. In late 2021, Teamster members voted out 23-year president James P. Hoffa – son of Jimmy Hoffa – and replaced him with Sean O’Brien. Teamsters at UPS were unhappy that Hoffa had used a technicality to force through an unpopular contract in 2018. O’Brien had campaigned as a militant reformer who promised to take the fight to the company in the next round.

Some labor experts are predicting a strike. Public support for labor unions is at a 57-year high. Meanwhile, UPS is projecting annual revenues for 2022 to exceed $100 billion. The stakes have never been higher, for both the company and the union. If there’s a walkout, it will be the largest-ever work stoppage at a single company in U.S. history.

I don’t know how it all will play out. Nobody does. But it’s my nature to be hopeful.

These days, the conversations among my fellow 22.4 drivers include a lot of speculation about how our jobs might change for the better under the terms of a new contract:

• Maybe our wages will go up enough to notice a difference in our weekly paychecks.
• Maybe the 22.4 class of drivers will be eliminated and we’ll all get reclassified as higher-paid RPCDs.
• Maybe we’ll stop being forced in to work on our days off, and we can enjoy regular two-day weekends.
• Maybe the wage progression will shrink from four years (back) down to three or two, so we’re that much closer to making top rate.

One thing’s for certain. Ready or not, change is coming to the UPS workforce in 2023.